November CIPA results: What we expected, ILC's continue to drastically drop from last year
If you have been following us, you'd look at the above chart and realize you've seen it somewhere else ;)
Here was our estimate of November and December numbers last month.
As you can see we absolutely nailed the actual, with CIPA reporting just a shade over 1 million ILC's shipped in November.
Make no mistake, this was expected, and it's entirely normal. Last year was an anomoly and shouldn't be used as a baseline.
The mirrorless to DSLR marketshare seems to have stablized off at around 35%. It's essentially been floating around that since Last November timeframe, so a year worth of reporting.
The large trend that you see some people mention just isnt' happening. The trendline up to 35% is very smilar to the trendline that happened in Sept-Nov 2013 (again, in November) which the marketshare for mirrorless increased to 25%.
In other words, we see these shifts as major players change their product mixes. We should see another shipment "bump" for mirrorless next year as both Nikon and Canon release mirrorless full frame cameras, and Canon in particular keeps it's march of mass shipping APS-C mirrorless primarily to Asia.
in a couple of months when 2018 data comes out a better visual on the overall state of the market will be far more evident than it is now. For now, it appears like the estimates that both Canon and CIPA has released through the year will be accurate. 2017 will be slightly under that of 2016 as far as shipments. For stablization, this appears to be a good thing but another year of data is necessary before anyone can really make that claim.
None of the data shows much change in between October and November data. We are going to keep this reporting short and sweet this month
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